PICKLES Probabilistic Inference of Competitive Kitchen-Line Expected Scores
LATEST RESULTS :: 2026-10-14 — 74 GAMES GRADED · 2 UPSETS→ RESULTS
PRO PICKLEBALL, PROBABILISTICALLY

Who wins?
Ask 42,000 games.

Current-form power rankings, win probabilities for every MLP night and PPA bracket, a simulator for any four pros — and the full archive of past forecasts, hits and misses.

> P(WINNER CALLED CORRECTLY)
77.4% THIS MODEL
HELD-OUT GAMES884
Frozen on pre-June data, then scored on 884 games it never saw. The number is out-of-sample, not a backtest.

What the model keeps track of

LIVE WIN PROBABILITY

Rally-by-rally win probability while matches are on — serve-aware, updating every ~20 seconds, anchored to the same pre-match numbers the receipts page grades.

POWER RANKINGS
WATERS99%
BRIGHT1%
JOHNSON1%
TODD1%
BLACK1%

The women's #1 is a live race. The men's is a four-way statistical tie. Error bars included, always.

SINGLES RATINGS
W#1 WATERS+9.5 PTS
M#1 HAWORTH+8.2 PTS
NO SINGLES RECORD?STILL PROJECTED

PPA singles games plus MLP DreamBreaker rallies as evidence — every 2026 player rated or projected, error bars included, with the DreamBreaker record book.

MATCH FORECASTS
NEXT EVENTFORECAST SOON

Every MLP team night and PPA championship Sunday — win probability, most-likely score, DreamBreaker chances.

TRACK RECORD
H1 85%✓ HIT
H2 85%✓ HIT
H3 80%✓ HIT

The full archive of past forecasts, scored: 77.4% of winners called on 884 games the model never saw. Misses kept too.

SIMULATOR
> PICK ANY FOUR PROS
> ANY PAIRING, ANY FORMAT
> RUNNING 100,000 SIMS_
→ RATED, WITH ERROR BARS

Any hypothetical pairing, weakest-link penalty included. Superstar + passenger ≠ two solids.

GAMES IN THE MODEL (2024–26, MLP + PPA)41,531
PLAYERS WITH MONTHLY SKILL TRACKING558
DATA THROUGH2026-10-14
TOURS COVEREDMLP + PPA