Rally-by-rally win probability for today's MLP matchups and PPA pro doubles and singles, from the same validated models the receipts ledger and the singles ratings page carry — the serve-aware engine is anchored so its pre-match numbers match the frozen forecasts exactly. Board refreshes every ~20 seconds.
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Fine print: per-point strength from the v2 Bayesian model (36k games); serve-aware side-out DP with league serve-rally rate k = 0.43 measured from referee logs; each game anchored to the calibrated pre-match probability, so live curves and the receipts ledger agree at rally zero. In-game calibration is provisional pending the full rally-log backfill — treat mid-game numbers as honest estimates, not gospel. PPA singles rows use the singles ratings (posterior value ± sd, integrated) with a one-server-per-side DP at singles k = 0.525; DreamBreakers use the singles model too (rough by design). Probabilities are floored — nothing is ever 0% or 100%. Rally-resolution curves appear on digitally-refereed courts; otherwise the page samples the scoreboard every ~20 s. Chart ticks: T = timeout, C = challenge/review.