Sam Weinbach M
mens 25–21 · mixed 17–11
+3.7 (+1.8…+5.3)
pts vs avg pairing (90% interval)
#95
of 286 active men (within gender only)
42–32
career record · 57% wins, 53% of points
Skill trajectory
Monthly posterior value (converted to points vs an average
pairing) with a 90% credible band. Flat months = little evidence, not zero
games.
2024-01 · +3.3 pts (90% band +1.4 to +4.8) 2024-02 · +3.3 pts (90% band +1.5 to +4.8) 2024-03 · +3.3 pts (90% band +1.6 to +4.8) 2024-04 · +3.3 pts (90% band +1.7 to +4.8) 2024-05 · +3.4 pts (90% band +1.7 to +4.8) 2024-06 · +3.4 pts (90% band +1.8 to +4.8) 2024-07 · +3.4 pts (90% band +1.9 to +4.7) 2024-08 · +3.5 pts (90% band +2.0 to +4.7) 2024-09 · +3.5 pts (90% band +2.0 to +4.7) 2024-10 · +3.5 pts (90% band +2.1 to +4.7) 2024-11 · +3.5 pts (90% band +2.1 to +4.7) 2024-12 · +3.5 pts (90% band +2.2 to +4.7) 2025-01 · +3.6 pts (90% band +2.2 to +4.7) 2025-02 · +3.6 pts (90% band +2.3 to +4.7) 2025-03 · +3.6 pts (90% band +2.2 to +4.7) 2025-04 · +3.6 pts (90% band +2.2 to +4.7) 2025-05 · +3.5 pts (90% band +2.2 to +4.7) 2025-06 · +3.5 pts (90% band +2.2 to +4.7) 2025-07 · +3.5 pts (90% band +2.1 to +4.7) 2025-08 · +3.5 pts (90% band +2.1 to +4.7) 2025-09 · +3.5 pts (90% band +2.0 to +4.8) 2025-10 · +3.5 pts (90% band +1.9 to +4.9) 2025-11 · +3.6 pts (90% band +1.9 to +4.9) 2025-12 · +3.6 pts (90% band +1.9 to +5.0) 2026-01 · +3.6 pts (90% band +1.9 to +5.0) 2026-02 · +3.6 pts (90% band +1.9 to +5.0) 2026-03 · +3.6 pts (90% band +1.9 to +5.1) 2026-04 · +3.7 pts (90% band +1.9 to +5.1) 2026-05 · +3.7 pts (90% band +1.9 to +5.1) 2026-06 · +3.7 pts (90% band +1.9 to +5.2) 2026-07 · +3.7 pts (90% band +1.9 to +5.2) 2026-08 · +3.7 pts (90% band +1.9 to +5.2) 2026-09 · +3.7 pts (90% band +1.8 to +5.2) 2026-10 · +3.7 pts (90% band +1.8 to +5.3) +2 +3 +4 +5 2024 2025 2026 pts vs avg pairing
Game log vs expectation
Dots = share of points actually won in each game; line = what
the model expected given both pairings that month (weakest-link included;
descriptive, not a frozen forecast).
2024-08-21 PPA · 11-5 · vs Wolf/Petterson · w/ Luke Wasson · model expected 60% of points 2024-08-21 PPA · 11-5 · vs Wolf/Petterson · w/ Luke Wasson · model expected 60% of points 2024-08-21 PPA · 12-10 (OT) · vs Boydston/Howard · w/ Luke Wasson · model expected 58% of points 2024-08-21 PPA · 9-11 · vs Boydston/Howard · w/ Luke Wasson · model expected 58% of points 2024-08-21 PPA · 11-2 · vs Boydston/Howard · w/ Luke Wasson · model expected 58% of points 2024-08-22 PPA · 11-4 · vs Weinbach/Russo · w/ Luke Wasson · model expected 63% of points 2024-08-22 PPA · 11-4 · vs Weinbach/Russo · w/ Luke Wasson · model expected 63% of points 2024-08-24 PPA · 8-11 · vs Daescu/Tardio · w/ Luke Wasson · model expected 25% of points 2024-08-24 PPA · 3-11 · vs Daescu/Tardio · w/ Luke Wasson · model expected 25% of points 2024-11-05 PPA · 1-11 · vs Joseph/Young · w/ Dave Weinbach · model expected 45% of points 2024-11-05 PPA · 8-11 · vs Joseph/Young · w/ Dave Weinbach · model expected 45% of points 2024-11-13 PPA · 11-7 · vs Alexander/Diaz · w/ Ryan Skufca · model expected 69% of points 2024-11-13 PPA · 11-1 · vs Alexander/Diaz · w/ Ryan Skufca · model expected 69% of points 2024-11-13 PPA · 3-11 · vs Fritze/Torresin · w/ Ryan Skufca · model expected 48% of points 2024-11-13 PPA · 6-11 · vs Fritze/Torresin · w/ Ryan Skufca · model expected 48% of points 2025-01-06 PPA · 11-0 · vs Block/White · w/ Dave Weinbach · model expected 84% of points 2025-01-06 PPA · 11-0 · vs Block/White · w/ Dave Weinbach · model expected 84% of points 2025-01-06 PPA · 9-11 · vs Ayon/Poland · w/ Dave Weinbach · model expected 47% of points 2025-01-06 PPA · 10-12 (OT) · vs Ayon/Poland · w/ Dave Weinbach · model expected 47% of points 2025-01-08 PPA · 11-9 · vs Taylor/Smith · w/ Dave Weinbach · model expected 47% of points 2025-01-08 PPA · 5-11 · vs Taylor/Smith · w/ Dave Weinbach · model expected 47% of points 2025-01-08 PPA · 2-11 · vs Taylor/Smith · w/ Dave Weinbach · model expected 47% of points 2025-02-17 PPA · 11-9 · vs Berryman/Mayorga-Perry · w/ Dana Raugust · model expected 65% of points 2025-02-17 PPA · 12-10 (OT) · vs Berryman/Mayorga-Perry · w/ Dana Raugust · model expected 65% of points 2025-02-17 PPA · 11-8 · vs Weller/Lenhard · w/ Jesse Eyman · model expected 47% of points 2025-02-17 PPA · 11-5 · vs Weller/Lenhard · w/ Jesse Eyman · model expected 47% of points 2025-02-17 PPA · 3-11 · vs Protzek/Cawston · w/ Jesse Eyman · model expected 39% of points 2025-02-17 PPA · 6-11 · vs Protzek/Cawston · w/ Jesse Eyman · model expected 39% of points 2025-02-17 PPA · 11-1 · vs Cawston/Ronney · w/ Dana Raugust · model expected 60% of points 2025-02-17 PPA · 11-5 · vs Cawston/Ronney · w/ Dana Raugust · model expected 60% of points 2025-02-18 PPA · 3-11 · vs Johns/Waters · w/ Dana Raugust · model expected 16% of points 2025-02-18 PPA · 4-11 · vs Johns/Waters · w/ Dana Raugust · model expected 16% of points 2025-02-18 PPA · 11-2 · vs Grigoriu/Braham · w/ Dana Raugust · model expected 54% of points 2025-02-18 PPA · 11-7 · vs Grigoriu/Braham · w/ Dana Raugust · model expected 54% of points 2025-05-12 PPA · 5-11 · vs Wilson/English · w/ Wil Shaffer · model expected 52% of points 2025-05-12 PPA · 11-13 (OT) · vs Wilson/English · w/ Wil Shaffer · model expected 52% of points 2025-05-12 PPA · 11-6 · vs Cassidy/Ticknor · w/ Ella Yeh · model expected 61% of points 2025-05-12 PPA · 11-4 · vs Cassidy/Ticknor · w/ Ella Yeh · model expected 61% of points 2025-05-12 PPA · 11-9 · vs Nsekpong/Conard · w/ Ella Yeh · model expected 51% of points 2025-05-12 PPA · 9-11 · vs Nsekpong/Conard · w/ Ella Yeh · model expected 51% of points 2025-05-12 PPA · 11-9 · vs Nsekpong/Conard · w/ Ella Yeh · model expected 51% of points 2025-05-13 PPA · 6-11 · vs Alhouni/Esquivel · w/ Ella Yeh · model expected 39% of points 2025-05-13 PPA · 10-12 (OT) · vs Alhouni/Esquivel · w/ Ella Yeh · model expected 39% of points 2025-07-26 PPA · 15-8 · vs Nanavati/Zilys · w/ Mouaad Alhouni · model expected 50% of points 2025-07-26 PPA · 15-13 · vs Feyereisen/Hayes · w/ Mouaad Alhouni · model expected 63% of points 2025-07-26 PPA · 11-4 · vs Labat/Olson · w/ Mouaad Alhouni · model expected 60% of points 2025-07-26 PPA · 11-5 · vs Labat/Olson · w/ Mouaad Alhouni · model expected 60% of points 2025-07-26 PPA · 4-11 · vs Lee/Lohani · w/ Mouaad Alhouni · model expected 43% of points 2025-07-26 PPA · 6-11 · vs Lee/Lohani · w/ Mouaad Alhouni · model expected 43% of points 2025-07-26 PPA · 4-11 · vs Wasson/Burrows · w/ Mouaad Alhouni · model expected 49% of points 2025-07-26 PPA · 11-7 · vs Wasson/Burrows · w/ Mouaad Alhouni · model expected 49% of points 2025-07-26 PPA · 11-8 · vs Wasson/Burrows · w/ Mouaad Alhouni · model expected 49% of points 2025-07-26 PPA · 15-10 · vs Johnson/Marks · w/ Mouaad Alhouni · model expected 67% of points 2025-07-26 PPA · 15-11 · vs Radermacher/Cassens · w/ Mouaad Alhouni · model expected 50% of points 2025-07-27 PPA · 14-16 (OT) · vs Tonnessen/Beasley · w/ Arielle Butler · model expected 59% of points 2025-07-27 PPA · 15-7 · vs Godwin/Iii · w/ Arielle Butler · model expected 72% of points 2025-07-27 PPA · 9-11 · vs Minniefield/Eaby · w/ Arielle Butler · model expected 58% of points 2025-07-27 PPA · 14-16 (OT) · vs Minniefield/Eaby · w/ Arielle Butler · model expected 58% of points 2026-08-01 PPA · 6-11 · vs Hoover/Varon · w/ Luke Wasson · model expected 44% of points 2026-08-01 PPA · 9-11 · vs Hoover/Varon · w/ Luke Wasson · model expected 44% of points 2026-08-01 PPA · 15-3 · vs Mead/Bulger · w/ Luke Wasson · model expected 69% of points 2026-08-01 PPA · 13-15 · vs Whittaker/Lohani · w/ Luke Wasson · model expected 46% of points 2026-08-01 PPA · 11-8 · vs W/Feyereisen · w/ Luke Wasson · model expected 64% of points 2026-08-01 PPA · 11-4 · vs W/Feyereisen · w/ Luke Wasson · model expected 64% of points 2026-08-01 PPA · 15-13 · vs Mercado/Messinger · w/ Luke Wasson · model expected 52% of points 2026-08-02 PPA · 0-11 · vs Mercado/Osher · w/ Hailey Munz · model expected 45% of points 2026-08-02 PPA · 12-10 (OT) · vs Mercado/Osher · w/ Hailey Munz · model expected 45% of points 2026-08-02 PPA · 8-11 · vs Mercado/Osher · w/ Hailey Munz · model expected 45% of points 2026-08-02 PPA · 7-15 · vs Sonday/Wade · w/ Hailey Munz · model expected 38% of points 2026-08-02 PPA · 15-11 · vs Huynh/Tran · w/ Hailey Munz · model expected 45% of points 2026-08-02 PPA · 15-10 · vs IV/Gonnering · w/ Hailey Munz · model expected 57% of points 2026-08-02 PPA · 15-10 · vs Leonard/Rettke · w/ Hailey Munz · model expected 60% of points 2026-08-02 PPA · 11-1 · vs Niemann/Mead · w/ Hailey Munz · model expected 72% of points 2026-08-02 PPA · 11-5 · vs Niemann/Mead · w/ Hailey Munz · model expected 72% of points 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2024 2025 2026 win loss model expectation share of points
Splits
year tour W–L
win% avg score 2024 PPA 8–7 53% 8.5–7.7 2025 PPA 24–19 56% 9.7–8.8 2026 PPA 10–6 62% 10.9–9.3
3–2
deciding games (PPA winner-take-all)
3–5
overtime games (past the target)
18
blowout wins (opponents ≤5)
+5
current streak (+W / −L)
Singles
+1.9 (-1.0…+4.4)
pts vs avg active men’s singles player (90%)
rated
18 pro singles games
8–10
singles record · last 2025-02
Full singles ratings →
Partners
Chemistry = pair effect beyond the two players' values, in
points per game; almost everything here is honest noise — no pair in the
sport clears statistical significance (why ).
partner games
W–L point share chem (pts)
Luke Wasson 16 10–6 57% +0.13 ±0.50 (noise) Mouaad Alhouni 11 8–3 54% +0.02 ±0.49 (noise) Dave Weinbach 9 3–6 47% -0.05 ±0.52 (noise) Hailey Munz 9 6–3 53% +0.02 ±0.53 (noise) Dana Raugust 8 6–2 57% +0.17 ±0.51 (noise) Ella Yeh 7 4–3 53% +0.07 ±0.49 (noise) Ryan Skufca 4 2–2 51% -0.06 ±0.50 (noise) Jesse Eyman 4 2–2 47% +0.01 ±0.52 (noise) Arielle Butler 4 1–3 51% -0.14 ±0.50 (noise) Wil Shaffer 2 0–2 40% -0.06 ±0.51 (noise)
Recent games
date tour partner
opponents score vs exp
2026-08-02 PPA · mixed Hailey Munz Niemann/Mead 11-5 -3% 2026-08-02 PPA · mixed Hailey Munz Niemann/Mead 11-1 +20% 2026-08-02 PPA · mixed Hailey Munz Leonard/Rettke 15-10 -0% 2026-08-02 PPA · mixed Hailey Munz IV/Gonnering 15-10 +3% 2026-08-02 PPA · mixed Hailey Munz Huynh/Tran 15-11 +12% 2026-08-02 PPA · mixed Hailey Munz Sonday/Wade 7-15 -6% 2026-08-02 PPA · mixed Hailey Munz Mercado/Osher 8-11 -3% 2026-08-02 PPA · mixed Hailey Munz Mercado/Osher 12-10 OT+9% 2026-08-02 PPA · mixed Hailey Munz Mercado/Osher 0-11 -45% 2026-08-01 PPA · mens Luke Wasson Mercado/Messinger 15-13 +2% 2026-08-01 PPA · mens Luke Wasson W/Feyereisen 11-4 +9% 2026-08-01 PPA · mens Luke Wasson W/Feyereisen 11-8 -6%
Put Sam in the simulator →
Unofficial fan analytics based on public results data —
not affiliated with any tour. Every number that has an error bar shows it;
cross-gender rankings are never published as fact (why ).
Model: Bayesian, 36k games, validated 77.4% winner accuracy on 884 unseen
games · data through 2026-10-14.