PICKLES

Charles Case M

mens 30–22 · mixed 2–7

+2.0 (-1.0…+4.3)
pts vs avg pairing (90% interval)
#219
of 286 active men (within gender only)
32–29
career record · 52% wins, 51% of points
—
6-month form

Skill trajectory

Monthly posterior value (converted to points vs an average pairing) with a 90% credible band. Flat months = little evidence, not zero games.

2024-01 · +1.8 pts (90% band -0.3 to +3.5)2024-02 · +1.8 pts (90% band -0.2 to +3.5)2024-03 · +1.8 pts (90% band -0.1 to +3.5)2024-04 · +1.8 pts (90% band +0.0 to +3.5)2024-05 · +1.8 pts (90% band -0.0 to +3.4)2024-06 · +1.8 pts (90% band -0.1 to +3.4)2024-07 · +1.7 pts (90% band -0.2 to +3.4)2024-08 · +1.7 pts (90% band -0.3 to +3.4)2024-09 · +1.7 pts (90% band -0.4 to +3.4)2024-10 · +1.7 pts (90% band -0.4 to +3.5)2024-11 · +1.7 pts (90% band -0.3 to +3.5)2024-12 · +1.8 pts (90% band -0.3 to +3.5)2025-01 · +1.8 pts (90% band -0.2 to +3.6)2025-02 · +1.8 pts (90% band -0.2 to +3.6)2025-03 · +1.9 pts (90% band -0.1 to +3.6)2025-04 · +1.9 pts (90% band -0.0 to +3.7)2025-05 · +1.9 pts (90% band +0.0 to +3.7)2025-06 · +2.0 pts (90% band +0.0 to +3.7)2025-07 · +2.0 pts (90% band +0.0 to +3.7)2025-08 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.1 to +3.8)2025-09 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.1 to +3.8)2025-10 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.1 to +3.8)2025-11 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.2 to +3.8)2025-12 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.2 to +3.9)2026-01 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.3 to +3.9)2026-02 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.3 to +3.9)2026-03 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.3 to +3.9)2026-04 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.4 to +4.0)2026-05 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.5 to +4.0)2026-06 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.6 to +4.1)2026-07 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.7 to +4.1)2026-08 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.8 to +4.2)2026-09 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.9 to +4.2)2026-10 · +2.0 pts (90% band -1.0 to +4.3)+0+2+4202420252026pts vs avg pairing

Game log vs expectation

Dots = share of points actually won in each game; line = what the model expected given both pairings that month (weakest-link included; descriptive, not a frozen forecast).

2024-04-24 PPA · 12-10 (OT) · vs Jr/Fruttero · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 67% of points2024-04-24 PPA · 11-1 · vs Jr/Fruttero · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 67% of points2024-04-24 PPA · 11-2 · vs Holbrook/Bliss · w/ Maddy Rasmusen · model expected 66% of points2024-04-24 PPA · 11-5 · vs Holbrook/Bliss · w/ Maddy Rasmusen · model expected 66% of points2024-04-24 PPA · 3-11 · vs Haas/Haas · w/ Maddy Rasmusen · model expected 46% of points2024-04-24 PPA · 8-11 · vs Haas/Haas · w/ Maddy Rasmusen · model expected 46% of points2024-04-24 PPA · 11-3 · vs Vanderwarf/Williams · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 55% of points2024-04-24 PPA · 10-12 (OT) · vs Vanderwarf/Williams · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 55% of points2024-04-24 PPA · 11-4 · vs Vanderwarf/Williams · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 55% of points2024-04-27 PPA · 11-8 · vs Eveloff/Beasley · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 52% of points2024-04-27 PPA · 11-5 · vs Eveloff/Beasley · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 52% of points2024-04-27 PPA · 4-11 · vs Daescu/Tardio · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 23% of points2024-04-27 PPA · 5-11 · vs Daescu/Tardio · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 23% of points2024-06-24 PPA · 11-8 · vs Cartenuto/Troike · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 61% of points2024-06-24 PPA · 11-1 · vs Cartenuto/Troike · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 61% of points2024-06-25 PPA · 12-10 (OT) · vs Wild/Jr · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 53% of points2024-06-25 PPA · 9-11 · vs Wild/Jr · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 53% of points2024-06-25 PPA · 10-12 (OT) · vs Wild/Jr · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 53% of points2024-08-21 PPA · 7-11 · vs Ferrer/Springfield · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 43% of points2024-08-21 PPA · 11-9 · vs Ferrer/Springfield · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 43% of points2024-08-21 PPA · 4-11 · vs Ferrer/Springfield · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 43% of points2024-08-26 PPA · 8-11 · vs Rosenbach/Wold · w/ Dodo Kong · model expected 43% of points2024-08-26 PPA · 10-12 (OT) · vs Rosenbach/Wold · w/ Dodo Kong · model expected 43% of points2024-08-27 PPA · 11-4 · vs Velarde/Jimenez · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 80% of points2024-08-27 PPA · 11-0 · vs Velarde/Jimenez · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 80% of points2024-08-27 PPA · 4-11 · vs Venkatesan/Quintero · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 58% of points2024-08-27 PPA · 11-9 · vs Venkatesan/Quintero · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 58% of points2024-08-27 PPA · 10-12 (OT) · vs Venkatesan/Quintero · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 58% of points2024-10-09 PPA · 11-2 · vs Dysert/Simms · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 61% of points2024-10-09 PPA · 11-13 (OT) · vs Dysert/Simms · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 61% of points2024-10-09 PPA · 11-3 · vs Dysert/Simms · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 61% of points2024-10-09 PPA · 11-5 · vs Wong/Lam · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 58% of points2024-10-09 PPA · 1-11 · vs Wong/Lam · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 58% of points2024-10-09 PPA · 11-8 · vs Wong/Lam · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 58% of points2024-10-10 PPA · 1-11 · vs Nahum/Afanasenka · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 53% of points2024-10-10 PPA · 11-9 · vs Nahum/Afanasenka · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 53% of points2024-10-10 PPA · 8-11 · vs Nahum/Afanasenka · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 53% of points2025-05-31 PPA · 15-8 · vs Coutinho/Wade · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 52% of points2025-05-31 PPA · 15-8 · vs Thul/Sarthak · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 51% of points2025-05-31 PPA · 15-8 · vs Duffin/Boydston · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 53% of points2025-05-31 PPA · 5-11 · vs Burkhardt/Bhargava · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 46% of points2025-05-31 PPA · 11-6 · vs Burkhardt/Bhargava · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 46% of points2025-05-31 PPA · 13-11 (OT) · vs Burkhardt/Bhargava · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 46% of points2025-05-31 PPA · 11-13 (OT) · vs Edwards/Ortega · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 49% of points2025-05-31 PPA · 3-11 · vs Edwards/Ortega · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 49% of points2025-05-31 PPA · 3-11 · vs Delgado/Wasson · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 44% of points2025-05-31 PPA · 11-8 · vs Delgado/Wasson · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 44% of points2025-05-31 PPA · 7-11 · vs Delgado/Wasson · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 44% of points2025-05-31 PPA · 8-11 · vs Heiner/Thorn · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 60% of points2025-05-31 PPA · 11-9 · vs Heiner/Thorn · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 60% of points2025-05-31 PPA · 11-4 · vs Heiner/Thorn · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 60% of points2026-01-25 PPA · 7-15 · vs Poland/Nguyen · w/ Lily Goodwin · model expected 23% of points2026-01-25 PPA · 2-11 · vs Vasvatekis/Radermacher · w/ Lily Goodwin · model expected 39% of points2026-01-25 PPA · 3-11 · vs Vasvatekis/Radermacher · w/ Lily Goodwin · model expected 39% of points2026-02-16 PPA · 13-11 (OT) · vs Byun/Burkhardt · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 51% of points2026-02-16 PPA · 11-2 · vs Byun/Burkhardt · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 51% of points2026-02-16 PPA · 11-2 · vs Filardi/Morris · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 61% of points2026-02-16 PPA · 8-11 · vs Filardi/Morris · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 61% of points2026-02-16 PPA · 11-6 · vs Filardi/Morris · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 61% of points2026-02-17 PPA · 4-11 · vs Blaszkewycz/Yang · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 32% of points2026-02-17 PPA · 3-11 · vs Blaszkewycz/Yang · w/ Ryan Smith · model expected 32% of points0%25%50%75%100%202420252026winlossmodel expectationshare of points

Splits

yeartourW–L win%avg score
2024PPA20–1754%9.1–8.1
2025PPA8–657%9.9–9.3
2026PPA4–640%7.3–9.1
6–5
deciding games (PPA winner-take-all)
4–6
overtime games (past the target)
15
blowout wins (opponents ≤5)
4
longest win streak
-2
current streak (+W / −L)

Singles

-2.7 (-6.7…+3.1)
pts vs avg active men’s singles player (90%)
projected
no singles record — projected from doubles, selection-corrected

Full singles ratings →

Partners

Chemistry = pair effect beyond the two players' values, in points per game; almost everything here is honest noise — no pair in the sport clears statistical significance (why).

partnergames W–Lpoint sharechem (pts)
Ryan Smith5230–2253%+0.09 ±0.52 (noise)
Maddy Rasmusen42–253%+0.00 ±0.53 (noise)
Lily Goodwin30–324%-0.05 ±0.50 (noise)
Dodo Kong20–244%+0.01 ±0.53 (noise)

Recent games

datetourpartner opponentsscorevs exp
2026-02-17PPA · mensRyan SmithBlaszkewycz/Yang3-11-10%
2026-02-17PPA · mensRyan SmithBlaszkewycz/Yang4-11-5%
2026-02-16PPA · mensRyan SmithFilardi/Morris11-6+4%
2026-02-16PPA · mensRyan SmithFilardi/Morris8-11-19%
2026-02-16PPA · mensRyan SmithFilardi/Morris11-2+24%
2026-02-16PPA · mensRyan SmithByun/Burkhardt11-2+34%
2026-02-16PPA · mensRyan SmithByun/Burkhardt13-11 OT+4%
2026-01-25PPA · mixedLily GoodwinVasvatekis/Radermacher3-11-17%
2026-01-25PPA · mixedLily GoodwinVasvatekis/Radermacher2-11-24%
2026-01-25PPA · mixedLily GoodwinPoland/Nguyen7-15+9%
2025-05-31PPA · mensRyan SmithHeiner/Thorn11-4+13%
2025-05-31PPA · mensRyan SmithHeiner/Thorn11-9-5%

Put Charles in the simulator →