PICKLES

Marie Lutz W

womens 14–25 · mixed 8–17

+0.6 (-2.2…+2.7)
pts vs avg pairing (90% interval)
#171
of 204 active women (within gender only)
22–42
career record · 34% wins, 44% of points
—
6-month form

Skill trajectory

Monthly posterior value (converted to points vs an average pairing) with a 90% credible band. Flat months = little evidence, not zero games.

2024-01 · +0.9 pts (90% band -1.7 to +3.0)2024-02 · +0.9 pts (90% band -1.7 to +2.9)2024-03 · +1.0 pts (90% band -1.6 to +2.9)2024-04 · +0.9 pts (90% band -1.6 to +2.8)2024-05 · +0.9 pts (90% band -1.5 to +2.8)2024-06 · +0.9 pts (90% band -1.5 to +2.8)2024-07 · +0.9 pts (90% band -1.4 to +2.8)2024-08 · +0.9 pts (90% band -1.4 to +2.7)2024-09 · +0.9 pts (90% band -1.4 to +2.7)2024-10 · +0.9 pts (90% band -1.3 to +2.7)2024-11 · +0.9 pts (90% band -1.3 to +2.7)2024-12 · +1.0 pts (90% band -1.2 to +2.7)2025-01 · +1.0 pts (90% band -1.2 to +2.6)2025-02 · +1.0 pts (90% band -1.1 to +2.6)2025-03 · +1.0 pts (90% band -1.0 to +2.5)2025-04 · +1.0 pts (90% band -0.9 to +2.5)2025-05 · +1.0 pts (90% band -0.9 to +2.5)2025-06 · +0.9 pts (90% band -0.9 to +2.5)2025-07 · +0.9 pts (90% band -0.9 to +2.4)2025-08 · +0.9 pts (90% band -0.8 to +2.4)2025-09 · +0.9 pts (90% band -0.8 to +2.3)2025-10 · +0.8 pts (90% band -1.0 to +2.2)2025-11 · +0.7 pts (90% band -1.1 to +2.1)2025-12 · +0.5 pts (90% band -1.3 to +2.0)2026-01 · +0.5 pts (90% band -1.4 to +2.0)2026-02 · +0.5 pts (90% band -1.4 to +2.0)2026-03 · +0.6 pts (90% band -1.4 to +2.1)2026-04 · +0.6 pts (90% band -1.5 to +2.2)2026-05 · +0.6 pts (90% band -1.6 to +2.3)2026-06 · +0.6 pts (90% band -1.8 to +2.3)2026-07 · +0.6 pts (90% band -1.8 to +2.4)2026-08 · +0.6 pts (90% band -2.0 to +2.5)2026-09 · +0.6 pts (90% band -2.1 to +2.6)2026-10 · +0.6 pts (90% band -2.2 to +2.7)-2+0+2202420252026pts vs avg pairing

Game log vs expectation

Dots = share of points actually won in each game; line = what the model expected given both pairings that month (weakest-link included; descriptive, not a frozen forecast).

2024-03-16 PPA · 3-11 · vs Garcia/Wang · w/ Victoria Yu · model expected 44% of points2024-03-16 PPA · 11-5 · vs Garcia/Wang · w/ Victoria Yu · model expected 44% of points2024-03-16 PPA · 11-8 · vs Garcia/Wang · w/ Victoria Yu · model expected 44% of points2024-03-17 PPA · 5-11 · vs Irvine/Valdes · w/ Victoria Yu · model expected 23% of points2024-03-17 PPA · 3-11 · vs Irvine/Valdes · w/ Victoria Yu · model expected 23% of points2024-04-10 PPA · 4-11 · vs Schmidt/Johnson · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 30% of points2024-04-10 PPA · 0-11 · vs Schmidt/Johnson · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 30% of points2024-04-13 PPA · 5-11 · vs Hatton/Yeh · w/ Victoria Yu · model expected 47% of points2024-04-13 PPA · 11-2 · vs Hatton/Yeh · w/ Victoria Yu · model expected 47% of points2024-04-13 PPA · 11-9 · vs Hatton/Yeh · w/ Victoria Yu · model expected 47% of points2024-04-13 PPA · 2-11 · vs Smith/Kovalova · w/ Victoria Yu · model expected 19% of points2024-04-13 PPA · 1-11 · vs Smith/Kovalova · w/ Victoria Yu · model expected 19% of points2025-03-12 PPA · 7-11 · vs Blaszkewycz/Hoag · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 30% of points2025-03-12 PPA · 4-11 · vs Blaszkewycz/Hoag · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 30% of points2025-03-15 PPA · 3-11 · vs Duknic/Conard · w/ Luana Stanciu · model expected 40% of points2025-03-15 PPA · 11-9 · vs Duknic/Conard · w/ Luana Stanciu · model expected 40% of points2025-03-15 PPA · 5-11 · vs Duknic/Conard · w/ Luana Stanciu · model expected 40% of points2025-08-30 PPA · 6-11 · vs Jansen/Dizon · w/ Nicole Conard · model expected 21% of points2025-08-30 PPA · 1-11 · vs Jansen/Dizon · w/ Nicole Conard · model expected 21% of points2025-08-30 PPA · 11-2 · vs Lai/Taniguchi · w/ Nicole Conard · model expected 59% of points2025-08-30 PPA · 11-7 · vs Lai/Taniguchi · w/ Nicole Conard · model expected 59% of points2025-09-06 PPA · 11-7 · vs Liang/McPherson · w/ Kayla Field · model expected 46% of points2025-09-06 PPA · 10-12 (OT) · vs Liang/McPherson · w/ Kayla Field · model expected 46% of points2025-09-06 PPA · 7-11 · vs Liang/McPherson · w/ Kayla Field · model expected 46% of points2025-09-06 PPA · 7-11 · vs Petropouleas/Tonnessen · w/ Kayla Field · model expected 51% of points2025-09-06 PPA · 15-3 · vs Eckenstein/Goodwin · w/ Kayla Field · model expected 64% of points2025-09-07 PPA · 11-5 · vs Rives/Crouch · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 37% of points2025-09-07 PPA · 7-11 · vs Williams/Mody · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 36% of points2025-09-07 PPA · 11-9 · vs Liang/Jagtiani · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 42% of points2025-09-07 PPA · 8-15 · vs Petropouleas/Dussault · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 42% of points2025-09-07 PPA · 12-10 (OT) · vs Hidalgo-Smith/Dickson · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 48% of points2025-12-13 PPA · 15-12 · vs Lai/Fortino · w/ Luana Stanciu · model expected 52% of points2025-12-13 PPA · 3-11 · vs Fleming/Kenna · w/ Luana Stanciu · model expected 51% of points2025-12-13 PPA · 9-11 · vs Fleming/Kenna · w/ Luana Stanciu · model expected 51% of points2025-12-14 PPA · 9-15 · vs McPherson/Fisher · w/ Luana Stanciu · model expected 46% of points2025-12-14 PPA · 0-11 · vs Loyd/Okelley · w/ Rosen Naydenov · model expected 56% of points2025-12-14 PPA · 11-1 · vs Loyd/Okelley · w/ Rosen Naydenov · model expected 56% of points2025-12-14 PPA · 5-11 · vs Loyd/Okelley · w/ Rosen Naydenov · model expected 56% of points2025-12-14 PPA · 9-15 · vs Marrero/Banada · w/ Rosen Naydenov · model expected 54% of points2026-01-24 PPA · 12-15 · vs Leonard/Kalhorn · w/ Yolena Carlon · model expected 46% of points2026-01-24 PPA · 11-13 (OT) · vs Igleski/Monson · w/ Yolena Carlon · model expected 43% of points2026-01-24 PPA · 5-11 · vs Igleski/Monson · w/ Yolena Carlon · model expected 43% of points2026-01-25 PPA · 15-10 · vs Mason/McCartney · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 61% of points2026-01-25 PPA · 4-15 · vs Ayotte/Carlon · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 45% of points2026-01-25 PPA · 10-12 (OT) · vs Ticknor/Sikora · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 56% of points2026-01-25 PPA · 11-6 · vs Ticknor/Sikora · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 56% of points2026-01-25 PPA · 9-11 · vs Ticknor/Sikora · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 56% of points2026-02-21 PPA · 9-11 · vs Griffith/Beck · w/ Kayla Field · model expected 40% of points2026-02-21 PPA · 10-12 (OT) · vs Griffith/Beck · w/ Kayla Field · model expected 40% of points2026-02-21 PPA · 14-16 (OT) · vs Alarcon/Janssen · w/ Kayla Field · model expected 47% of points2026-02-22 PPA · 11-6 · vs Janssen/Kammerait · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 59% of points2026-02-22 PPA · 7-11 · vs Janssen/Kammerait · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 59% of points2026-02-22 PPA · 10-12 (OT) · vs Janssen/Kammerait · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 59% of points2026-02-22 PPA · 8-15 · vs Diskin/Radermacher · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 38% of points2026-03-09 PPA · 1-11 · vs Finnerty/Liu · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 44% of points2026-03-09 PPA · 11-9 · vs Finnerty/Liu · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 44% of points2026-03-09 PPA · 4-11 · vs Finnerty/Liu · w/ Sebastian Gutierrez · model expected 44% of points2026-03-09 PPA · 11-9 · vs Ulery/Williams · w/ Rachel Janssen · model expected 38% of points2026-03-09 PPA · 11-4 · vs Ulery/Williams · w/ Rachel Janssen · model expected 38% of points2026-03-09 PPA · 3-11 · vs Valenstein/Maguire · w/ Rachel Janssen · model expected 50% of points2026-03-09 PPA · 11-9 · vs Valenstein/Maguire · w/ Rachel Janssen · model expected 50% of points2026-03-09 PPA · 11-5 · vs Valenstein/Maguire · w/ Rachel Janssen · model expected 50% of points2026-03-11 PPA · 0-11 · vs Bright/Waters · w/ Rachel Janssen · model expected 5% of points2026-03-11 PPA · 3-11 · vs Bright/Waters · w/ Rachel Janssen · model expected 5% of points0%25%50%75%100%202420252026winlossmodel expectationshare of points

Splits

yeartourW–L win%avg score
2024PPA4–833%5.6–9.3
2025PPA10–1737%8.1–9.8
2026PPA8–1732%8.5–10.7
3–6
deciding games (PPA winner-take-all)
1–6
overtime games (past the target)
7
blowout wins (opponents ≤5)
3
longest win streak
-2
current streak (+W / −L)

Singles

-4.9 (-7.8…+0.5)
pts vs avg active women’s singles player (90%)
projected
no singles record — projected from doubles, selection-corrected

Full singles ratings →

Partners

Chemistry = pair effect beyond the two players' values, in points per game; almost everything here is honest noise — no pair in the sport clears statistical significance (why).

partnergames W–Lpoint sharechem (pts)
Sebastian Gutierrez217–1443%-0.08 ±0.50 (noise)
Victoria Yu104–641%+0.08 ±0.50 (noise)
Kayla Field82–650%+0.05 ±0.49 (noise)
Luana Stanciu72–541%-0.10 ±0.48 (noise)
Rachel Janssen74–345%+0.15 ±0.50 (noise)
Nicole Conard42–248%+0.07 ±0.50 (noise)
Rosen Naydenov41–340%-0.12 ±0.49 (noise)
Yolena Carlon30–342%-0.02 ±0.52 (noise)

Recent games

datetourpartner opponentsscorevs exp
2026-03-11PPA · womensRachel JanssenBright/Waters3-11+17%
2026-03-11PPA · womensRachel JanssenBright/Waters0-11-5%
2026-03-09PPA · womensRachel JanssenValenstein/Maguire11-5+19%
2026-03-09PPA · womensRachel JanssenValenstein/Maguire11-9+5%
2026-03-09PPA · womensRachel JanssenValenstein/Maguire3-11-28%
2026-03-09PPA · womensRachel JanssenUlery/Williams11-4+35%
2026-03-09PPA · womensRachel JanssenUlery/Williams11-9+17%
2026-03-09PPA · mixedSebastian GutierrezFinnerty/Liu4-11-17%
2026-03-09PPA · mixedSebastian GutierrezFinnerty/Liu11-9+11%
2026-03-09PPA · mixedSebastian GutierrezFinnerty/Liu1-11-35%
2026-02-22PPA · mixedSebastian GutierrezDiskin/Radermacher8-15-3%
2026-02-22PPA · mixedSebastian GutierrezJanssen/Kammerait10-12 OT-14%

Put Marie in the simulator →