PICKLES

Shelby Bates W

womens 25–20 · mixed 32–21

+4.8 (+2.9…+6.2)
pts vs avg pairing (90% interval)
—
of 204 active women (within gender only; no 2026 games)
57–41
career record · 58% wins, 54% of points
—
6-month form

Skill trajectory

Monthly posterior value (converted to points vs an average pairing) with a 90% credible band. Flat months = little evidence, not zero games.

2024-01 · +4.1 pts (90% band +2.6 to +5.3)2024-02 · +4.1 pts (90% band +2.7 to +5.2)2024-03 · +4.1 pts (90% band +2.8 to +5.2)2024-04 · +4.2 pts (90% band +2.9 to +5.2)2024-05 · +4.2 pts (90% band +3.0 to +5.2)2024-06 · +4.3 pts (90% band +3.2 to +5.3)2024-07 · +4.3 pts (90% band +3.2 to +5.3)2024-08 · +4.4 pts (90% band +3.3 to +5.3)2024-09 · +4.4 pts (90% band +3.3 to +5.3)2024-10 · +4.4 pts (90% band +3.3 to +5.4)2024-11 · +4.5 pts (90% band +3.4 to +5.4)2024-12 · +4.5 pts (90% band +3.4 to +5.4)2025-01 · +4.5 pts (90% band +3.4 to +5.5)2025-02 · +4.6 pts (90% band +3.5 to +5.5)2025-03 · +4.6 pts (90% band +3.5 to +5.6)2025-04 · +4.6 pts (90% band +3.5 to +5.6)2025-05 · +4.7 pts (90% band +3.5 to +5.6)2025-06 · +4.7 pts (90% band +3.5 to +5.7)2025-07 · +4.7 pts (90% band +3.5 to +5.7)2025-08 · +4.7 pts (90% band +3.4 to +5.8)2025-09 · +4.7 pts (90% band +3.4 to +5.8)2025-10 · +4.8 pts (90% band +3.4 to +5.9)2025-11 · +4.8 pts (90% band +3.4 to +5.9)2025-12 · +4.8 pts (90% band +3.3 to +5.9)2026-01 · +4.8 pts (90% band +3.3 to +6.0)2026-02 · +4.8 pts (90% band +3.2 to +6.0)2026-03 · +4.8 pts (90% band +3.2 to +6.1)2026-04 · +4.8 pts (90% band +3.1 to +6.1)2026-05 · +4.8 pts (90% band +3.1 to +6.1)2026-06 · +4.8 pts (90% band +3.1 to +6.1)2026-07 · +4.8 pts (90% band +3.0 to +6.2)2026-08 · +4.8 pts (90% band +3.0 to +6.2)2026-09 · +4.8 pts (90% band +2.9 to +6.2)2026-10 · +4.8 pts (90% band +2.9 to +6.2)+3+4+5+6202420252026pts vs avg pairing

Game log vs expectation

Dots = share of points actually won in each game; line = what the model expected given both pairings that month (weakest-link included; descriptive, not a frozen forecast).

2024-03-13 PPA · 3-11 · vs Yu/Carnett · w/ Austin Oreilly · model expected 47% of points2024-03-13 PPA · 11-7 · vs Yu/Carnett · w/ Austin Oreilly · model expected 47% of points2024-03-13 PPA · 9-11 · vs Yu/Carnett · w/ Austin Oreilly · model expected 47% of points2024-05-13 PPA · 15-13 · vs Irizarry/Borobia · w/ Kento Tamaki · model expected 55% of points2024-05-13 PPA · 2-15 · vs Fahey/Koller · w/ Kento Tamaki · model expected 31% of points2024-05-13 PPA · 15-5 · vs Sivan/Collins · w/ Kento Tamaki · model expected 72% of points2024-05-14 PPA · 11-4 · vs Minniefield/Ferris · w/ Rachel Rettger · model expected 70% of points2024-05-14 PPA · 11-3 · vs Minniefield/Ferris · w/ Rachel Rettger · model expected 70% of points2024-05-15 PPA · 7-11 · vs Black/David · w/ Rachel Rettger · model expected 26% of points2024-05-15 PPA · 0-11 · vs Black/David · w/ Rachel Rettger · model expected 26% of points2024-05-29 PPA · 11-1 · vs Park/Williams · w/ Stephen Madonia · model expected 54% of points2024-05-29 PPA · 3-11 · vs Park/Williams · w/ Stephen Madonia · model expected 54% of points2024-05-29 PPA · 0-11 · vs Park/Williams · w/ Stephen Madonia · model expected 54% of points2024-06-01 PPA · 11-3 · vs Donahue/Pitts · w/ Hannah Blatt · model expected 63% of points2024-06-01 PPA · 11-4 · vs Donahue/Pitts · w/ Hannah Blatt · model expected 63% of points2024-06-01 PPA · 8-11 · vs Smith/Kovalova · w/ Hannah Blatt · model expected 30% of points2024-06-01 PPA · 2-11 · vs Smith/Kovalova · w/ Hannah Blatt · model expected 30% of points2024-06-24 PPA · 11-4 · vs Kim/Biakina · w/ Christopher Haworth · model expected 75% of points2024-06-24 PPA · 11-3 · vs Kim/Biakina · w/ Christopher Haworth · model expected 75% of points2024-06-24 PPA · 11-6 · vs Finley/Brown · w/ Christopher Haworth · model expected 69% of points2024-06-24 PPA · 11-5 · vs Finley/Brown · w/ Christopher Haworth · model expected 69% of points2024-06-25 PPA · 6-11 · vs Black/Frazier · w/ Christopher Haworth · model expected 36% of points2024-06-25 PPA · 7-11 · vs Black/Frazier · w/ Christopher Haworth · model expected 36% of points2024-06-26 PPA · 11-4 · vs Walczak/Gecheva · w/ Hannah Blatt · model expected 40% of points2024-06-26 PPA · 4-11 · vs Walczak/Gecheva · w/ Hannah Blatt · model expected 40% of points2024-06-26 PPA · 3-11 · vs Walczak/Gecheva · w/ Hannah Blatt · model expected 40% of points2024-08-07 PPA · 11-3 · vs Huynh/Dayan · w/ Christopher Haworth · model expected 62% of points2024-08-07 PPA · 11-4 · vs Huynh/Dayan · w/ Christopher Haworth · model expected 62% of points2024-08-07 PPA · 11-1 · vs Young/James · w/ Christopher Haworth · model expected 54% of points2024-08-07 PPA · 7-11 · vs Young/James · w/ Christopher Haworth · model expected 54% of points2024-08-07 PPA · 12-10 (OT) · vs Young/James · w/ Christopher Haworth · model expected 54% of points2024-08-09 PPA · 4-11 · vs Smith/Devilliers · w/ Christopher Haworth · model expected 40% of points2024-08-09 PPA · 8-11 · vs Smith/Devilliers · w/ Christopher Haworth · model expected 40% of points2024-08-30 PPA · 11-3 · vs Horsley/Martine · w/ Emilia Schmidt · model expected 71% of points2024-08-30 PPA · 11-1 · vs Horsley/Martine · w/ Emilia Schmidt · model expected 71% of points2024-08-31 PPA · 11-9 · vs Hart/Reek · w/ Emilia Schmidt · model expected 51% of points2024-08-31 PPA · 7-11 · vs Hart/Reek · w/ Emilia Schmidt · model expected 51% of points2024-08-31 PPA · 6-11 · vs Hart/Reek · w/ Emilia Schmidt · model expected 51% of points2024-08-31 PPA · 11-6 · vs Dalla-Bona/Haet · w/ Emilia Schmidt · model expected 54% of points2024-08-31 PPA · 11-9 · vs Dalla-Bona/Haet · w/ Emilia Schmidt · model expected 54% of points2024-08-31 PPA · 11-5 · vs Tseng/Baum · w/ Kyle Yates · model expected 77% of points2024-08-31 PPA · 11-0 · vs Tseng/Baum · w/ Kyle Yates · model expected 77% of points2024-09-01 PPA · 4-11 · vs Burr/Estareja · w/ Kyle Yates · model expected 57% of points2024-09-01 PPA · 11-7 · vs Burr/Estareja · w/ Kyle Yates · model expected 57% of points2024-09-01 PPA · 4-11 · vs Burr/Estareja · w/ Kyle Yates · model expected 57% of points2024-09-09 PPA · 2-11 · vs Khlif/Oshiro · w/ Jack Foster · model expected 27% of points2024-09-09 PPA · 4-11 · vs Khlif/Oshiro · w/ Jack Foster · model expected 27% of points2024-09-09 PPA · 11-9 · vs Stockton/Long · w/ Jack Foster · model expected 50% of points2024-09-09 PPA · 12-10 (OT) · vs Stockton/Long · w/ Jack Foster · model expected 50% of points2024-09-09 PPA · 11-2 · vs Helmuth/Helmuth · w/ Jack Foster · model expected 69% of points2024-09-09 PPA · 11-4 · vs Helmuth/Helmuth · w/ Jack Foster · model expected 69% of points2024-09-10 PPA · 11-2 · vs Okelley/Minniefield · w/ Cassidy Hoag · model expected 76% of points2024-09-10 PPA · 11-2 · vs Okelley/Minniefield · w/ Cassidy Hoag · model expected 76% of points2024-09-11 PPA · 1-11 · vs Parenteau/Waters · w/ Cassidy Hoag · model expected 18% of points2024-09-11 PPA · 3-11 · vs Parenteau/Waters · w/ Cassidy Hoag · model expected 18% of points2024-12-21 PPA · 11-1 · vs Ampon/Ignatowich · w/ Cassidy Hoag · model expected 65% of points2024-12-21 PPA · 9-11 · vs Ampon/Ignatowich · w/ Cassidy Hoag · model expected 65% of points2024-12-21 PPA · 1-11 · vs Ampon/Ignatowich · w/ Cassidy Hoag · model expected 65% of points2025-03-05 PPA · 11-2 · vs Williams/Lindgren · w/ Jordan Chrysostom · model expected 81% of points2025-03-05 PPA · 11-4 · vs Williams/Lindgren · w/ Jordan Chrysostom · model expected 81% of points2025-03-05 PPA · 11-3 · vs Schoenebeck/Romano · w/ Jordan Chrysostom · model expected 59% of points2025-03-05 PPA · 12-10 (OT) · vs Schoenebeck/Romano · w/ Jordan Chrysostom · model expected 59% of points2025-03-05 PPA · 2-11 · vs Sitar/Simon · w/ Jordan Chrysostom · model expected 61% of points2025-03-05 PPA · 11-9 · vs Sitar/Simon · w/ Jordan Chrysostom · model expected 61% of points2025-03-05 PPA · 11-4 · vs Sitar/Simon · w/ Jordan Chrysostom · model expected 61% of points2025-03-07 PPA · 5-11 · vs Alshon/Parenteau · w/ Jordan Chrysostom · model expected 24% of points2025-03-07 PPA · 1-11 · vs Alshon/Parenteau · w/ Jordan Chrysostom · model expected 24% of points2025-03-08 PPA · 11-6 · vs Mulhern/Metzold · w/ Sarah Hua · model expected 63% of points2025-03-08 PPA · 11-4 · vs Mulhern/Metzold · w/ Sarah Hua · model expected 63% of points2025-03-08 PPA · 11-5 · vs Clemmer/Morelli · w/ Sarah Hua · model expected 64% of points2025-03-08 PPA · 3-11 · vs Clemmer/Morelli · w/ Sarah Hua · model expected 64% of points2025-03-08 PPA · 11-3 · vs Clemmer/Morelli · w/ Sarah Hua · model expected 64% of points2025-03-08 PPA · 11-7 · vs Grigoriu/Campbell · w/ Sarah Hua · model expected 56% of points2025-03-08 PPA · 9-11 · vs Grigoriu/Campbell · w/ Sarah Hua · model expected 56% of points2025-03-08 PPA · 11-7 · vs Grigoriu/Campbell · w/ Sarah Hua · model expected 56% of points2025-03-08 PPA · 6-11 · vs Johnson/Todd · w/ Sarah Hua · model expected 22% of points2025-03-08 PPA · 2-11 · vs Johnson/Todd · w/ Sarah Hua · model expected 22% of points2025-03-12 PPA · 11-6 · vs Braham/Conard · w/ Caden Nemoff · model expected 55% of points2025-03-12 PPA · 11-5 · vs Braham/Conard · w/ Caden Nemoff · model expected 55% of points2025-03-12 PPA · 11-3 · vs Shaffer/Yeh · w/ Caden Nemoff · model expected 63% of points2025-03-12 PPA · 11-0 · vs Shaffer/Yeh · w/ Caden Nemoff · model expected 63% of points2025-03-14 PPA · 9-11 · vs Tomassi/Duknic · w/ Caden Nemoff · model expected 50% of points2025-03-14 PPA · 9-11 · vs Tomassi/Duknic · w/ Caden Nemoff · model expected 50% of points2025-03-15 PPA · 6-11 · vs Dizon/Jones · w/ Cassidy Hoag · model expected 34% of points2025-03-15 PPA · 8-11 · vs Dizon/Jones · w/ Cassidy Hoag · model expected 34% of points2025-03-15 PPA · 11-5 · vs Hatton/Williams · w/ Cassidy Hoag · model expected 66% of points2025-03-15 PPA · 11-5 · vs Hatton/Williams · w/ Cassidy Hoag · model expected 66% of points2025-11-03 PPA · 11-4 · vs Iii/Laywell · w/ Harrison Brown · model expected 76% of points2025-11-03 PPA · 11-2 · vs Iii/Laywell · w/ Harrison Brown · model expected 76% of points2025-11-03 PPA · 11-9 · vs Banada/Blaszkewycz · w/ Harrison Brown · model expected 52% of points2025-11-03 PPA · 3-11 · vs Banada/Blaszkewycz · w/ Harrison Brown · model expected 52% of points2025-11-03 PPA · 8-11 · vs Banada/Blaszkewycz · w/ Harrison Brown · model expected 52% of points2025-11-03 PPA · 11-0 · vs Godwin/IV · w/ Roos Van Reek · model expected 83% of points2025-11-03 PPA · 11-3 · vs Godwin/IV · w/ Roos Van Reek · model expected 83% of points2025-11-05 PPA · 8-11 · vs Irvine/Jansen · w/ Roos Van Reek · model expected 44% of points2025-11-05 PPA · 10-12 (OT) · vs Irvine/Jansen · w/ Roos Van Reek · model expected 44% of points2025-11-05 PPA · 11-1 · vs Ignatowich/Funaro · w/ Roos Van Reek · model expected 75% of points2025-11-05 PPA · 11-2 · vs Ignatowich/Funaro · w/ Roos Van Reek · model expected 75% of points0%25%50%75%100%20242025winlossmodel expectationshare of points

Splits

yeartourW–L win%avg score
2024PPA32–2655%8.2–7.6
2025PPA25–1562%9.1–6.9
4–7
deciding games (PPA winner-take-all)
3–1
overtime games (past the target)
39
blowout wins (opponents ≤5)
6
longest win streak
+2
current streak (+W / −L)

Singles

+4.2 (+2.3…+5.7)
pts vs avg active women’s singles player (90%)
rated
37 pro singles games
20–17
singles record · last 2025-03

Full singles ratings →

Partners

Chemistry = pair effect beyond the two players' values, in points per game; almost everything here is honest noise — no pair in the sport clears statistical significance (why).

partnergames W–Lpoint sharechem (pts)
Christopher Haworth138–557%+0.07 ±0.50 (noise)
Cassidy Hoag115–651%+0.00 ±0.50 (noise)
Sarah Hua106–453%+0.02 ±0.48 (noise)
Jordan Chrysostom96–354%-0.06 ±0.50 (noise)
Hannah Blatt73–448%+0.09 ±0.49 (noise)
Emilia Schmidt75–258%+0.01 ±0.50 (noise)
Jack Foster64–252%+0.03 ±0.49 (noise)
Caden Nemoff64–263%+0.11 ±0.54 (noise)
Roos Van Reek64–268%+0.09 ±0.50 (noise)
Kyle Yates53–255%-0.07 ±0.50 (noise)
Harrison Brown53–254%-0.03 ±0.51 (noise)
Rachel Rettger42–250%+0.01 ±0.51 (noise)

Recent games

datetourpartner opponentsscorevs exp
2025-11-05PPA · womensRoos Van ReekIgnatowich/Funaro11-2+10%
2025-11-05PPA · womensRoos Van ReekIgnatowich/Funaro11-1+17%
2025-11-05PPA · womensRoos Van ReekIrvine/Jansen10-12 OT+1%
2025-11-05PPA · womensRoos Van ReekIrvine/Jansen8-11-2%
2025-11-03PPA · womensRoos Van ReekGodwin/IV11-3-4%
2025-11-03PPA · womensRoos Van ReekGodwin/IV11-0+17%
2025-11-03PPA · mixedHarrison BrownBanada/Blaszkewycz8-11-10%
2025-11-03PPA · mixedHarrison BrownBanada/Blaszkewycz3-11-30%
2025-11-03PPA · mixedHarrison BrownBanada/Blaszkewycz11-9+3%
2025-11-03PPA · mixedHarrison BrownIii/Laywell11-2+8%
2025-11-03PPA · mixedHarrison BrownIii/Laywell11-4-3%
2025-03-15PPA · womensCassidy HoagHatton/Williams11-5+2%

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