PICKLES

Michelle Murphy W

womens 14–30 · mixed 14–23

+1.3 (-2.1…+3.7)
pts vs avg pairing (90% interval)
—
of 204 active women (within gender only; no 2026 games)
28–53
career record · 35% wins, 44% of points
—
6-month form

Skill trajectory

Monthly posterior value (converted to points vs an average pairing) with a 90% credible band. Flat months = little evidence, not zero games.

2024-01 · +1.7 pts (90% band +0.1 to +3.2)2024-02 · +1.6 pts (90% band +0.1 to +3.1)2024-03 · +1.6 pts (90% band +0.1 to +3.0)2024-04 · +1.6 pts (90% band +0.1 to +3.0)2024-05 · +1.5 pts (90% band +0.0 to +2.9)2024-06 · +1.5 pts (90% band +0.1 to +2.9)2024-07 · +1.5 pts (90% band +0.0 to +2.8)2024-08 · +1.4 pts (90% band -0.0 to +2.8)2024-09 · +1.4 pts (90% band -0.1 to +2.8)2024-10 · +1.4 pts (90% band -0.2 to +2.8)2024-11 · +1.4 pts (90% band -0.2 to +2.8)2024-12 · +1.4 pts (90% band -0.2 to +2.9)2025-01 · +1.3 pts (90% band -0.3 to +2.8)2025-02 · +1.3 pts (90% band -0.4 to +2.8)2025-03 · +1.3 pts (90% band -0.5 to +2.9)2025-04 · +1.3 pts (90% band -0.6 to +2.9)2025-05 · +1.3 pts (90% band -0.7 to +3.0)2025-06 · +1.3 pts (90% band -0.8 to +3.0)2025-07 · +1.3 pts (90% band -0.9 to +3.1)2025-08 · +1.3 pts (90% band -1.0 to +3.1)2025-09 · +1.3 pts (90% band -1.1 to +3.2)2025-10 · +1.3 pts (90% band -1.2 to +3.2)2025-11 · +1.3 pts (90% band -1.3 to +3.3)2025-12 · +1.3 pts (90% band -1.3 to +3.3)2026-01 · +1.3 pts (90% band -1.4 to +3.4)2026-02 · +1.3 pts (90% band -1.5 to +3.4)2026-03 · +1.3 pts (90% band -1.6 to +3.4)2026-04 · +1.3 pts (90% band -1.7 to +3.5)2026-05 · +1.3 pts (90% band -1.8 to +3.5)2026-06 · +1.3 pts (90% band -1.8 to +3.6)2026-07 · +1.3 pts (90% band -1.9 to +3.6)2026-08 · +1.3 pts (90% band -1.9 to +3.6)2026-09 · +1.3 pts (90% band -2.0 to +3.7)2026-10 · +1.3 pts (90% band -2.1 to +3.7)-2+0+2+4202420252026pts vs avg pairing

Game log vs expectation

Dots = share of points actually won in each game; line = what the model expected given both pairings that month (weakest-link included; descriptive, not a frozen forecast).

2024-01-09 PPA · 11-2 · vs Potter/King · w/ Luke Ness · model expected 69% of points2024-01-09 PPA · 11-2 · vs Potter/King · w/ Luke Ness · model expected 69% of points2024-01-09 PPA · 9-11 · vs Revuelta/Loyd · w/ Luke Ness · model expected 42% of points2024-01-09 PPA · 12-10 (OT) · vs Revuelta/Loyd · w/ Luke Ness · model expected 42% of points2024-01-09 PPA · 6-11 · vs Revuelta/Loyd · w/ Luke Ness · model expected 42% of points2024-01-10 PPA · 8-11 · vs Eugenio/Elliott · w/ Lyndsay Kinstler · model expected 42% of points2024-01-10 PPA · 10-12 (OT) · vs Eugenio/Elliott · w/ Lyndsay Kinstler · model expected 42% of points2024-02-03 PPA · 11-6 · vs Murillo/Beck · w/ Lyndsay Kinstler · model expected 52% of points2024-02-03 PPA · 1-11 · vs Murillo/Beck · w/ Lyndsay Kinstler · model expected 52% of points2024-02-03 PPA · 11-13 (OT) · vs Murillo/Beck · w/ Lyndsay Kinstler · model expected 52% of points2024-02-03 PPA · 15-13 · vs Mason/Saucerman · w/ Lyndsay Kinstler · model expected 57% of points2024-02-03 PPA · 10-15 · vs Chuang/Nelson · w/ Lyndsay Kinstler · model expected 35% of points2024-03-13 PPA · 11-5 · vs Grant/Lim · w/ Chase Ora · model expected 56% of points2024-03-13 PPA · 11-9 · vs Grant/Lim · w/ Chase Ora · model expected 56% of points2024-03-13 PPA · 2-11 · vs Schmidt/Munro · w/ Chase Ora · model expected 28% of points2024-03-13 PPA · 11-9 · vs Schmidt/Munro · w/ Chase Ora · model expected 28% of points2024-03-13 PPA · 2-11 · vs Schmidt/Munro · w/ Chase Ora · model expected 28% of points2024-03-16 PPA · 11-5 · vs Miller/Mason · w/ Dionne Lim · model expected 57% of points2024-03-16 PPA · 9-11 · vs Miller/Mason · w/ Dionne Lim · model expected 57% of points2024-03-16 PPA · 8-11 · vs Miller/Mason · w/ Dionne Lim · model expected 57% of points2024-04-17 PPA · 2-11 · vs Estareja/Elpusan · w/ Chase Ora · model expected 30% of points2024-04-17 PPA · 2-11 · vs Estareja/Elpusan · w/ Chase Ora · model expected 30% of points2024-04-20 PPA · 5-11 · vs Elpusan/Chew · w/ Lauren Jones · model expected 41% of points2024-04-20 PPA · 6-11 · vs Elpusan/Chew · w/ Lauren Jones · model expected 41% of points2024-04-24 PPA · 5-11 · vs Forsythe/James · w/ Farzin Amiri · model expected 39% of points2024-04-24 PPA · 6-11 · vs Forsythe/James · w/ Farzin Amiri · model expected 39% of points2024-04-27 PPA · 11-6 · vs Lord/Wong · w/ Lauren Jones · model expected 62% of points2024-04-27 PPA · 11-0 · vs Lord/Wong · w/ Lauren Jones · model expected 62% of points2024-04-27 PPA · 6-11 · vs Newman/Sleeth · w/ Lauren Jones · model expected 38% of points2024-04-27 PPA · 5-11 · vs Newman/Sleeth · w/ Lauren Jones · model expected 38% of points2024-06-05 PPA · 11-3 · vs Palm/Monson · w/ Luke Ness · model expected 56% of points2024-06-05 PPA · 6-11 · vs Palm/Monson · w/ Luke Ness · model expected 56% of points2024-06-05 PPA · 9-11 · vs Palm/Monson · w/ Luke Ness · model expected 56% of points2024-06-08 PPA · 11-3 · vs Daly/Bolko · w/ Lauren Jones · model expected 70% of points2024-06-08 PPA · 11-2 · vs Daly/Bolko · w/ Lauren Jones · model expected 70% of points2024-06-08 PPA · 5-11 · vs Brascia/Brascia · w/ Lauren Jones · model expected 22% of points2024-06-08 PPA · 0-11 · vs Brascia/Brascia · w/ Lauren Jones · model expected 22% of points2024-06-24 PPA · 6-11 · vs Fu/Grigoriu · w/ Chase Ora · model expected 35% of points2024-06-24 PPA · 7-11 · vs Fu/Grigoriu · w/ Chase Ora · model expected 35% of points2024-06-24 PPA · 11-9 · vs Lau/McIntosh · w/ Chase Ora · model expected 44% of points2024-06-24 PPA · 7-11 · vs Lau/McIntosh · w/ Chase Ora · model expected 44% of points2024-06-24 PPA · 11-3 · vs Lau/McIntosh · w/ Chase Ora · model expected 44% of points2024-06-26 PPA · 5-11 · vs Kong/Ampon · w/ Bryanna Ojeda · model expected 41% of points2024-06-26 PPA · 11-2 · vs Kong/Ampon · w/ Bryanna Ojeda · model expected 41% of points2024-06-26 PPA · 1-11 · vs Kong/Ampon · w/ Bryanna Ojeda · model expected 41% of points2024-08-10 PPA · 11-7 · vs Yoshitomi/Lim · w/ Cade Pierson · model expected 60% of points2024-08-10 PPA · 11-4 · vs Yoshitomi/Lim · w/ Cade Pierson · model expected 60% of points2024-08-10 PPA · 3-11 · vs Kawamoto/Kovalova · w/ Cade Pierson · model expected 19% of points2024-08-10 PPA · 1-11 · vs Kawamoto/Kovalova · w/ Cade Pierson · model expected 19% of points2024-08-26 PPA · 11-9 · vs Smith/Rasmusen · w/ Kevin Dayan · model expected 49% of points2024-08-26 PPA · 8-11 · vs Smith/Rasmusen · w/ Kevin Dayan · model expected 49% of points2024-08-26 PPA · 8-11 · vs Smith/Rasmusen · w/ Kevin Dayan · model expected 49% of points2024-08-29 PPA · 0-11 · vs Brascia/Brascia · w/ Christine Trifunovic · model expected 18% of points2024-08-29 PPA · 2-11 · vs Brascia/Brascia · w/ Christine Trifunovic · model expected 18% of points2024-09-09 PPA · 1-11 · vs Stockton/Long · w/ Matthew Mead · model expected 41% of points2024-09-09 PPA · 4-11 · vs Stockton/Long · w/ Matthew Mead · model expected 41% of points2024-09-10 PPA · 11-9 · vs Ignatowich/Bouchard · w/ Helen To · model expected 46% of points2024-09-10 PPA · 3-11 · vs Ignatowich/Bouchard · w/ Helen To · model expected 46% of points2024-09-10 PPA · 8-11 · vs Ignatowich/Bouchard · w/ Helen To · model expected 46% of points2024-12-18 PPA · 11-7 · vs Wasson/Conard · w/ Spartak Rahachou · model expected 45% of points2024-12-18 PPA · 11-1 · vs Wasson/Conard · w/ Spartak Rahachou · model expected 45% of points2024-12-18 PPA · 7-11 · vs Delgado/Aldridge · w/ Spartak Rahachou · model expected 44% of points2024-12-18 PPA · 5-11 · vs Delgado/Aldridge · w/ Spartak Rahachou · model expected 44% of points2024-12-21 PPA · 0-11 · vs Waters/Waters · w/ Helen To · model expected 13% of points2024-12-21 PPA · 2-11 · vs Waters/Waters · w/ Helen To · model expected 13% of points2024-12-21 PPA · 9-11 · vs Blatt/Goldberg · w/ Helen To · model expected 41% of points2024-12-21 PPA · 11-9 · vs Blatt/Goldberg · w/ Helen To · model expected 41% of points2024-12-21 PPA · 11-4 · vs Blatt/Goldberg · w/ Helen To · model expected 41% of points2025-01-06 PPA · 6-11 · vs Ampon/Tauber · w/ Bryanna Ojeda · model expected 39% of points2025-01-06 PPA · 12-14 (OT) · vs Ampon/Tauber · w/ Bryanna Ojeda · model expected 39% of points2025-01-06 PPA · 3-11 · vs Widdershoven/Mack · w/ Louie Payetta · model expected 36% of points2025-01-06 PPA · 2-11 · vs Widdershoven/Mack · w/ Louie Payetta · model expected 36% of points2025-01-09 PPA · 0-11 · vs Schneemann/Dizon · w/ Bryanna Ojeda · model expected 19% of points2025-01-09 PPA · 0-11 · vs Schneemann/Dizon · w/ Bryanna Ojeda · model expected 19% of points2025-06-16 PPA · 11-1 · vs G/Skalabrin · w/ Daniel Roditi · model expected 71% of points2025-06-16 PPA · 11-6 · vs G/Skalabrin · w/ Daniel Roditi · model expected 71% of points2025-06-16 PPA · 4-11 · vs Jareonvongrayab/Hoang · w/ Natalie Raney · model expected 51% of points2025-06-16 PPA · 11-7 · vs Jareonvongrayab/Hoang · w/ Natalie Raney · model expected 51% of points2025-06-16 PPA · 8-11 · vs Jareonvongrayab/Hoang · w/ Natalie Raney · model expected 51% of points2025-06-16 PPA · 5-11 · vs Goldberg/Blaszkewycz · w/ Daniel Roditi · model expected 33% of points2025-06-16 PPA · 4-11 · vs Goldberg/Blaszkewycz · w/ Daniel Roditi · model expected 33% of points0%25%50%75%100%20242025winlossmodel expectationshare of points

Splits

yeartourW–L win%avg score
2024PPA25–4337%7.4–9.1
2025PPA3–1023%5.9–9.8
2–9
deciding games (PPA winner-take-all)
1–3
overtime games (past the target)
14
blowout wins (opponents ≤5)
2
longest win streak
-3
current streak (+W / −L)

Singles

+1.2 (-1.1…+3.3)
pts vs avg active women’s singles player (90%)
rated
50 pro singles games
22–28
singles record · last 2025-01

Full singles ratings →

Partners

Chemistry = pair effect beyond the two players' values, in points per game; almost everything here is honest noise — no pair in the sport clears statistical significance (why).

partnergames W–Lpoint sharechem (pts)
Chase Ora125–743%+0.08 ±0.52 (noise)
Lauren Jones104–648%+0.03 ±0.51 (noise)
Luke Ness84–455%+0.09 ±0.50 (noise)
Helen To83–542%+0.06 ±0.50 (noise)
Lyndsay Kinstler72–545%-0.01 ±0.54 (noise)
Bryanna Ojeda71–633%-0.04 ±0.51 (noise)
Cade Pierson42–244%+0.02 ±0.49 (noise)
Spartak Rahachou42–253%+0.09 ±0.49 (noise)
Daniel Roditi42–252%+0.04 ±0.52 (noise)
Dionne Lim31–251%-0.04 ±0.54 (noise)
Kevin Dayan31–247%-0.02 ±0.53 (noise)
Natalie Raney31–244%-0.04 ±0.52 (noise)

Recent games

datetourpartner opponentsscorevs exp
2025-06-16PPA · mixedDaniel RoditiGoldberg/Blaszkewycz4-11-7%
2025-06-16PPA · mixedDaniel RoditiGoldberg/Blaszkewycz5-11-2%
2025-06-16PPA · womensNatalie RaneyJareonvongrayab/Hoang8-11-9%
2025-06-16PPA · womensNatalie RaneyJareonvongrayab/Hoang11-7+10%
2025-06-16PPA · womensNatalie RaneyJareonvongrayab/Hoang4-11-25%
2025-06-16PPA · mixedDaniel RoditiG/Skalabrin11-6-7%
2025-06-16PPA · mixedDaniel RoditiG/Skalabrin11-1+20%
2025-01-09PPA · womensBryanna OjedaSchneemann/Dizon0-11-19%
2025-01-09PPA · womensBryanna OjedaSchneemann/Dizon0-11-19%
2025-01-06PPA · mixedLouie PayettaWiddershoven/Mack2-11-20%
2025-01-06PPA · mixedLouie PayettaWiddershoven/Mack3-11-14%
2025-01-06PPA · womensBryanna OjedaAmpon/Tauber12-14 OT+7%

Put Michelle in the simulator →