PICKLES

Michael Shaw M

mens 32–28 · mixed 3–6

+2.7 (+0.9…+4.3)
pts vs avg pairing (90% interval)
#169
of 286 active men (within gender only)
35–34
career record · 51% wins, 51% of points
—
6-month form

Skill trajectory

Monthly posterior value (converted to points vs an average pairing) with a 90% credible band. Flat months = little evidence, not zero games.

2024-01 · +1.9 pts (90% band -1.0 to +4.2)2024-02 · +1.9 pts (90% band -0.9 to +4.2)2024-03 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.9 to +4.2)2024-04 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.9 to +4.2)2024-05 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.8 to +4.2)2024-06 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.7 to +4.2)2024-07 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.7 to +4.2)2024-08 · +2.0 pts (90% band -0.6 to +4.2)2024-09 · +2.1 pts (90% band -0.6 to +4.2)2024-10 · +2.1 pts (90% band -0.5 to +4.2)2024-11 · +2.1 pts (90% band -0.5 to +4.2)2024-12 · +2.1 pts (90% band -0.3 to +4.2)2025-01 · +2.1 pts (90% band -0.2 to +4.1)2025-02 · +2.2 pts (90% band -0.1 to +4.1)2025-03 · +2.2 pts (90% band -0.0 to +4.1)2025-04 · +2.2 pts (90% band +0.1 to +4.1)2025-05 · +2.2 pts (90% band +0.1 to +4.0)2025-06 · +2.2 pts (90% band +0.2 to +4.0)2025-07 · +2.3 pts (90% band +0.2 to +4.0)2025-08 · +2.3 pts (90% band +0.3 to +4.0)2025-09 · +2.3 pts (90% band +0.4 to +4.0)2025-10 · +2.3 pts (90% band +0.5 to +4.0)2025-11 · +2.4 pts (90% band +0.6 to +4.0)2025-12 · +2.4 pts (90% band +0.6 to +4.0)2026-01 · +2.5 pts (90% band +0.6 to +4.1)2026-02 · +2.5 pts (90% band +0.7 to +4.1)2026-03 · +2.5 pts (90% band +0.8 to +4.1)2026-04 · +2.6 pts (90% band +0.9 to +4.1)2026-05 · +2.6 pts (90% band +0.9 to +4.1)2026-06 · +2.6 pts (90% band +0.9 to +4.1)2026-07 · +2.7 pts (90% band +1.0 to +4.2)2026-08 · +2.7 pts (90% band +1.0 to +4.2)2026-09 · +2.7 pts (90% band +1.0 to +4.2)2026-10 · +2.7 pts (90% band +0.9 to +4.3)+0+2+4202420252026pts vs avg pairing

Game log vs expectation

Dots = share of points actually won in each game; line = what the model expected given both pairings that month (weakest-link included; descriptive, not a frozen forecast).

2025-09-06 PPA · 5-11 · vs Waiwaiole/Werbeck · w/ Ahmad El-Zarif · model expected 54% of points2025-09-06 PPA · 11-8 · vs Waiwaiole/Werbeck · w/ Ahmad El-Zarif · model expected 54% of points2025-09-06 PPA · 3-11 · vs Waiwaiole/Werbeck · w/ Ahmad El-Zarif · model expected 54% of points2025-09-06 PPA · 11-15 · vs Franke/Ruyle · w/ Ahmad El-Zarif · model expected 51% of points2025-09-06 PPA · 15-10 · vs Lewis/Chassang · w/ Ahmad El-Zarif · model expected 57% of points2025-09-06 PPA · 15-9 · vs Gutierrez/Kurki · w/ Ahmad El-Zarif · model expected 62% of points2025-11-18 PPA · 5-11 · vs Parks/Aninon · w/ Johan Nilsson · model expected 35% of points2025-11-18 PPA · 13-11 (OT) · vs Parks/Aninon · w/ Johan Nilsson · model expected 35% of points2025-11-18 PPA · 11-5 · vs Parks/Aninon · w/ Johan Nilsson · model expected 35% of points2025-11-18 PPA · 8-11 · vs Aiken/Betita · w/ Johan Nilsson · model expected 58% of points2025-11-18 PPA · 12-10 (OT) · vs Aiken/Betita · w/ Johan Nilsson · model expected 58% of points2025-11-18 PPA · 11-9 · vs Aiken/Betita · w/ Johan Nilsson · model expected 58% of points2025-11-21 PPA · 7-11 · vs Fu/Shimabukuro · w/ Johan Nilsson · model expected 29% of points2025-11-21 PPA · 4-11 · vs Fu/Shimabukuro · w/ Johan Nilsson · model expected 29% of points2025-12-16 PPA · 11-5 · vs Turcsany/Alexander · w/ Johan Nilsson · model expected 65% of points2025-12-16 PPA · 11-5 · vs Turcsany/Alexander · w/ Johan Nilsson · model expected 65% of points2025-12-16 PPA · 11-8 · vs Laville/Preissler · w/ Johan Nilsson · model expected 45% of points2025-12-16 PPA · 13-15 (OT) · vs Laville/Preissler · w/ Johan Nilsson · model expected 45% of points2025-12-16 PPA · 8-11 · vs Laville/Preissler · w/ Johan Nilsson · model expected 45% of points2026-01-10 PPA · 12-15 · vs Lewis/Greiner · w/ Johan Nilsson · model expected 57% of points2026-01-10 PPA · 5-11 · vs Berryman/Growcott · w/ Johan Nilsson · model expected 44% of points2026-01-10 PPA · 2-11 · vs Berryman/Growcott · w/ Johan Nilsson · model expected 44% of points2026-01-10 PPA · 11-6 · vs Perez/Lucci · w/ Johan Nilsson · model expected 67% of points2026-01-10 PPA · 11-3 · vs Perez/Lucci · w/ Johan Nilsson · model expected 67% of points2026-01-10 PPA · 15-2 · vs Torres/Gallagher · w/ Johan Nilsson · model expected 56% of points2026-03-07 PPA · 7-11 · vs Dancuart/Slive · w/ Federico Nani · model expected 43% of points2026-03-07 PPA · 8-11 · vs Dancuart/Slive · w/ Federico Nani · model expected 43% of points2026-04-27 PPA · 12-10 (OT) · vs Harper/Pepion · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 69% of points2026-04-27 PPA · 11-0 · vs Harper/Pepion · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 69% of points2026-04-27 PPA · 11-6 · vs Berryman/McCartney · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 53% of points2026-04-27 PPA · 11-7 · vs Berryman/McCartney · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 53% of points2026-04-27 PPA · 11-4 · vs Hanson/Hart · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 49% of points2026-04-27 PPA · 1-11 · vs Hanson/Hart · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 49% of points2026-04-27 PPA · 11-6 · vs Hanson/Hart · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 49% of points2026-04-28 PPA · 0-11 · vs Vich/Truong · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 30% of points2026-04-28 PPA · 6-11 · vs Vich/Truong · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 30% of points2026-07-18 PPA · 11-3 · vs Markulike/Rojas · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 82% of points2026-07-18 PPA · 11-2 · vs Markulike/Rojas · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 82% of points2026-07-18 PPA · 7-15 · vs Dancuart/Torresin · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 35% of points2026-07-18 PPA · 7-11 · vs Anderson/Whitaker · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 51% of points2026-07-18 PPA · 11-5 · vs Anderson/Whitaker · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 51% of points2026-07-18 PPA · 11-5 · vs Anderson/Whitaker · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 51% of points2026-07-18 PPA · 5-11 · vs Blaszkewycz/Arnold · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 35% of points2026-07-18 PPA · 8-11 · vs Blaszkewycz/Arnold · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 35% of points2026-07-19 PPA · 15-7 · vs Leonard/Suard · w/ Sofia Manzanares · model expected 66% of points2026-07-19 PPA · 10-15 · vs Fahr/Hanson · w/ Sofia Manzanares · model expected 52% of points2026-07-19 PPA · 11-5 · vs Safdar/Brown · w/ Sofia Manzanares · model expected 41% of points2026-07-19 PPA · 7-11 · vs Safdar/Brown · w/ Sofia Manzanares · model expected 41% of points2026-07-19 PPA · 5-11 · vs Safdar/Brown · w/ Sofia Manzanares · model expected 41% of points2026-08-29 PPA · 10-12 (OT) · vs Ramchandani/Bhasin · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 57% of points2026-08-29 PPA · 11-6 · vs Ramchandani/Bhasin · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 57% of points2026-08-29 PPA · 11-8 · vs Ramchandani/Bhasin · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 57% of points2026-08-29 PPA · 6-15 · vs El-Zarif/Preissler · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 45% of points2026-08-29 PPA · 15-3 · vs Evans/Hsieh · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 75% of points2026-08-29 PPA · 15-8 · vs Ivey/Ivey · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 62% of points2026-08-29 PPA · 15-11 · vs Poland/Ayon · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 42% of points2026-08-29 PPA · 7-11 · vs Scarpa/Giannelli · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 39% of points2026-08-29 PPA · 10-12 (OT) · vs Scarpa/Giannelli · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 39% of points2026-08-30 PPA · 5-15 · vs Vitale/Varon · w/ Andi Godwin · model expected 35% of points2026-08-30 PPA · 11-1 · vs Perez/Simon · w/ Andi Godwin · model expected 41% of points2026-08-30 PPA · 10-12 (OT) · vs Perez/Simon · w/ Andi Godwin · model expected 41% of points2026-08-30 PPA · 4-11 · vs Perez/Simon · w/ Andi Godwin · model expected 41% of points2026-08-31 PPA · 11-7 · vs Ramchandani/Bhasin · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 57% of points2026-08-31 PPA · 11-9 · vs Ramchandani/Bhasin · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 57% of points2026-08-31 PPA · 11-6 · vs Berryman/Anderson · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 54% of points2026-08-31 PPA · 6-11 · vs Berryman/Anderson · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 54% of points2026-08-31 PPA · 11-8 · vs Berryman/Anderson · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 54% of points2026-09-02 PPA · 7-11 · vs Mackinnon/French · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 34% of points2026-09-02 PPA · 6-11 · vs Mackinnon/French · w/ Tobias Moreno · model expected 34% of points0%25%50%75%100%20252026winlossmodel expectationshare of points

Splits

yeartourW–L win%avg score
2025PPA10–953%9.7–9.8
2026PPA25–2550%9.1–8.7
6–4
deciding games (PPA winner-take-all)
3–4
overtime games (past the target)
12
blowout wins (opponents ≤5)
5
longest win streak
-2
current streak (+W / −L)

Singles

-5.3 (-7.5…-1.6)
pts vs avg active men’s singles player (90%)
blend
thin record (4 g, 0 DB rallies) + doubles-informed prior
1–3
singles record · last 2025-09

Full singles ratings →

Partners

Chemistry = pair effect beyond the two players' values, in points per game; almost everything here is honest noise — no pair in the sport clears statistical significance (why).

partnergames W–Lpoint sharechem (pts)
Tobias Moreno3319–1453%+0.07 ±0.48 (noise)
Johan Nilsson1910–951%+0.06 ±0.50 (noise)
Ahmad El-Zarif63–348%-0.09 ±0.53 (noise)
Sofia Manzanares52–349%+0.01 ±0.50 (noise)
Andi Godwin41–343%+0.03 ±0.48 (noise)
Federico Nani20–241%+0.00 ±0.51 (noise)

Recent games

datetourpartner opponentsscorevs exp
2026-09-02PPA · mensTobias MorenoMackinnon/French6-11+2%
2026-09-02PPA · mensTobias MorenoMackinnon/French7-11+5%
2026-08-31PPA · mensTobias MorenoBerryman/Anderson11-8+3%
2026-08-31PPA · mensTobias MorenoBerryman/Anderson6-11-19%
2026-08-31PPA · mensTobias MorenoBerryman/Anderson11-6+10%
2026-08-31PPA · mensTobias MorenoRamchandani/Bhasin11-9-2%
2026-08-31PPA · mensTobias MorenoRamchandani/Bhasin11-7+4%
2026-08-30PPA · mixedAndi GodwinPerez/Simon4-11-14%
2026-08-30PPA · mixedAndi GodwinPerez/Simon10-12 OT+4%
2026-08-30PPA · mixedAndi GodwinPerez/Simon11-1+51%
2026-08-30PPA · mixedAndi GodwinVitale/Varon5-15-10%
2026-08-29PPA · mensTobias MorenoScarpa/Giannelli10-12 OT+6%

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